Predicting the Evolution Trend of Water and Land Resource Carrying Capacity Based on CA–Markov Model in an Arid Region of Northwest China

The evolution of water and land resource carrying capacity significantly impacts optimal allocation regional sustainable development in arid regions. This study proposes a model that combines cellular automaton (CA) Markov; this aids predicting spatial changes availability. In study, taking the Jingdian Irrigation District China’s northwest region as an example, we used long-series monitoring data Landsat dataset to create raster-weighted fusion 18 indicators quantitatively analyzed status resources from 1994 2018. CA–Markov was simulate 2018 perform accuracy correction. validated predict 2026 2034. results show (1) 2018, area “good carrying” zone increased by 10.42%, “safe 7%, spatially rose arc town surrounding “critical remains almost unchanged. “slight decreased 5.18% “severe 11.99%. (2) Comparing actual predicted state it found simulation carrying”, reached 98.71%, 92.07%, 95.34%, 94.05%, 93.73%, respectively. indicates have high reliability applicability. (3) future medium long-term are healthy, but trend is gradually slowing. zones gradual transition desertification soil salinization.